Scary Bedtime Stories

No, this isn't about the bedtime stories I tell my 3 year old.

Rather, about some interesting comments I came accross at one of my favorite political blogs, POGGE (for Peace, order and good government, eh?). I generally find the analysis on the site to be of a higher order, and attracts a better calibre of reader/commenter (myself notwithstanding).

Now, if you know me you also know I have a penchant for predictions, and getting them down in writing so that they can be tracked, measured and discussed/debased, etc. It's really all in fun... well, morbid kind of fun anyhow. My predictions are usually simple, based on 'gut-takes' usually not fleshed out in to much detail.

I came accross this beaut of a herald for the future of the USA on Pogge, specifically as a comment to the posting "I'm the decider" and so I thought I'd share it with anyone who happens by here. This piece comes from someone who calls himself 'Purple Library Guy'

I'm finding it increasingly hard to care about the internal developments in the direction of fascism in the US. It's gathered a flavour of inevitability. The scenario for the US over the next few years goes roughly like this:

The US attacks Iran, primarily from the air. They cause considerable destruction and death, spend a lot of money, and accomplish nothing useful. The Iraqi insurgency suddenly broadens to include the Shiite militias. The most reactionary elements in Iran cement their hold on the country (duh).

Meanwhile, the US housing boom/bubble loses steam and no other economic activity takes its place. Worldwide lack of confidence in the US dollar reaches critical mass; lenders such as China greatly slow down in willingness to buy up US government debt. Iran retaliates for the US attack by stepping up its program of selling oil in Euros, threatens closure of the strait of Hormuz. Venezuela follows suit with the Euros thing, Russia dabbles in same. Oil prices rise in real terms, and the US dollar starts to fall fast, multiplying the impact of the price rise.
The US goes into recession, probably with spiralling inflation. In a desperate attempt to prop up the dollar, the Fed raises interest rates, worsening the recession but doing little to prop up the dollar. The public is upset, to say the least. The illegal immigrants' protest movements continue to gather strength.

Somewhere in all this, the midterm elections see widespread voter discontent with the Republicans, reduced in impact by the Democrats' utter lack of a program and the Republicans' gerrymandering, vicious mudslinging, and election-rigging. Democrats perhaps gain a majority; many US moderates are surprised to find that even as a majority the Democrats continue to back Bush-style policies and the Neocon police state, which continues to broaden and deepen. All those provisions which were, honest to gosh, only for use against terrists, increasingly are used against the broadening protest movements, using the current actions against radical environmentalists as a template.

Over the following years the US economy tanks pretty definitively, the US polity becomes more and more a fascist police state with a thinner and thinner veneer of "democracy", and the US in general becomes increasingly unstable. Voices in the South talk more and more about secession, charismatic preachers' doomsday "end times" cults become more and more popular. On the plus side for the rest of the world, the crashing of the infrastructure, economy, and currency mean that it becomes increasingly difficult for the US to maintain that huge military machine, much less buy the high-tech gizmos they need to produce the next generation of bang-bang; end-of-USSR-style failure to pay soldiers and government workers becomes endemic.

Somewhere in the throes of this, the US probably attempts some other incredibly stupid foreign military adventure. It costs a lot of money, causes much destruction, but in some way or other underlines the inability of the US to effectively project military power as it used to. If it doesn't, it nevertheless absolutely fails in all its stated policy goals. Repeat this step until one of these military ventures definitively fails--like, they find they literally can't refuel or maintain their aircraft or something.

Debts to the IMF and World Bank, denominated in US dollars, are generally paid off with ease due to the low value of that currency; those institutions become irrelevant.

At some point, Neocon types may or may not officially seize dictatorial power. If they do, it has little or no effect on either foreign or domestic policies.

That's my scenario. I'm increasingly convinced that's the rough outline the US is heading towards. The details of just who manoeuvres or monkeywrenches which bit into position is just losing interest for me--it's gonna happen. The Democrats are a strange mix of apathetic and onside with it. And there is no sign of any effective third-party or extraparliamentary opposition that could stop any of this before it's far too late. The only question is what do the rest of us do while the leviathan is flailing about in its fall?

Posted by: Purple Library Guy at June 4, 2006 04:42 PM

Yow. Let's hope for our sake it's not as bad as that. We shall see, one way or another.